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Experts in uncertainty opinion and subjective probability in science by Roger M. Cooke

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Published by Oxford University Press in New York .
Written in English

Subjects:

  • Science -- Philosophy.,
  • Science -- Methodology.,
  • Uncertainty (Information theory),
  • Probabilities.,
  • Decision making.

Book details:

Edition Notes

Includes bibliographical references (p. 299-313) and indexes.

StatementRoger M. Cooke.
SeriesEnvironmental ethics and science policy series, Environmental ethics and science policy.
Classifications
LC ClassificationsQ175 .C699 1991
The Physical Object
Paginationxii, 321 p. :
Number of Pages321
ID Numbers
Open LibraryOL1864560M
ISBN 100195064658
LC Control Number90022493

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  This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to expert systems and other.   Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, wCited by: Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies Cited by: Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks by Bilal M. Ayyub. Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories.

Medical books Experts in Uncertainty. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence.   The way experts understand uncertainty is fundamentally and unhappily disconnected from the way normal people do. The good news is that the .   “This book, written by a group of expert statisticians and psychologists, provides an introduction to the subject and a detailed overview of the existing literature. The book guides the reader through the design of an elicitation method and details examples from a cross section of literature in the statistics, psychology, engineering and.   Contact. American Enterprise Institute Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC Main telephone: Main fax:

Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case. Uncertainty Books Showing of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Hardcover) by. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Goodreads Author) (shelved 32 times as uncertainty) Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway (Hardcover) by. Brand new Book. This is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined.